Mortgage Rates

Both the CPI and PPI came in precisely within expectations. Under the current circumstances, there is now a very high probability that the Federal Reserve will implement a quarter-point rate cut, a view widely shared by industry analysts. There is also a strong possibility of another cut to follow. Meanwhile, Consumer Sentiment has hit another low in the last 4 months, as many have growing concerns about the state of the job market in addition to inflation continuing to grow. It is unknown how much the rate cuts will impact inflation, but so far the Federal Reserve has managed to…

The release of major inflation data has once again arrived with the Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price Index, offering insight into the current state of the economy. Based on recent statements from the Federal Reserve, there is considerable speculation that rate cuts may occur regardless of the trajectory of inflation. More recent data releases have shown that the economy is still on shaky ground after changes to tariff policies, leading things to be more unstable than anticipated. Trade deficits have also shown to have bounced back significantly from the prior months, while the manufacturing side are still showing…

With the release of the PCE Index, inflation has shown to still be creeping upwards but there is significant speculation that the Federal Reserve will continue with their interest rate cut in the future. Meanwhile, the Consumer Sentiment report has been growing pessimistic amidst the job market, which has been shown to be in a pattern of cooling down. This is offset by the strong growth by the GDP estimates for the second quarter, as it was initially predicted the tariff changes would have a significant impact on the GDP estimates, but the impact has been less prominent than expected.PCE…

The FOMC meeting that was held the previous week to discuss upcoming decisions addressed the future of the economic landscape. During his remarks, Jerome Powell stated that inflation will rise in the future, with consumers bearing the burden. Many have speculated that this means reductions in current rates are unlikely to happen anytime soon, in an attempt to keep inflation under control. Another notable release was the leading economic indicators, which once again showed contraction—signaling the potential for further economic decline. Leading Economic IndicatorsThe Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) for the US inched down by 0.1% in July 2025 to 98.7…

This will be the first release of the CPI and PPI report data wherein the data collected and used to determine the current inflation has been reduced. The Producer Price Index has shown quite clearly that there has been the biggest whole price jump in the last 3 years, showing that the administration's policies on tariffs are having an impact. The CPI has shown a similar increase in inflation, but still within expectations in lieu of the current tariff policies.  There is still data to be collected, with some speculation that the Federal Reserve may implement rate cuts in the…

The major report to look out for was the Trade Balance, which has decreased more than expected, suggesting that the current administration's policies are having an impact. However, the long-term impact on the economy as a whole remain to be seen. This was followed closely by consumer credit, which came in far lower than expected, though many are predicting that consumer credit usage will grow over time. While the labor market remains constrained, the consumer market has remained stable in spite of the uncertainty brought on by the tariff policies. Trade BalanceThe U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of…

There were several notable releases this last week, with the largest being the PCE Index — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator. The PCE Index may be the more accurate indicator going forward, as data collection for the Consumer Price Index has been recently cut, thereby reducing its reliability. As expected, the inflation numbers have been steadily rising with the PCE Index, indicating that impacts from the tariffs are now filtering into prices for both producers and consumers. As a follow up, Personal Income & Spending has had a light upturn after the initial panic with the tariffs. Lastly, the…