Jobless Claims

Inflation has shown signs of easing for the first time since the early days of the COVID pandemic. However, inflation remains higher than anticipated. Both the PPI and CPI data releases came in lower than expected, suggesting that inflationary pressures may be beginning to moderate. This is based on the newer, more theoretical reporting for the PPI and CPI. It is unlikely this will cause any significant change in stance by the Federal Reserve, as it still prefers the PCE Index as its preferred inflation indicator. In addition, prices remain elevated for the average consumer, creating pressure across many sectors.…

The Trade Balance has offered little new insight, as it has largely returned to levels seen prior to the earlier period of unstable tariff policies. Consumer Credit had been trending upward nearly every month; however, this latest report breaks that pattern by showing a decline in consumer credit usage. Meanwhile, the Fed’s Minutes revealed nothing particularly substantial, instead reflecting a dovish stance and a willingness to maintain current interest rates for the foreseeable future. Consumer CreditTotal US consumer credit fell by $0.18 billion in May 2026, following an upwardly revised $20.82 billion increase in April and missing market expectations for…

Unemployment data has shown some rather interesting statistics, with the lowest unemployment rates in the last 14 months being reported. Looking closer at the statistics shows that the unemployment rate hasn’t just dropped due to more people finding work, but also because a significant number of people have stopped looking for work, causing the numbers to appear more favorable. Among analysts, this is a pretty standout example, and currently, the Federal Reserve has made no indication that it plans to change its policies on interest rates, with many members of the board still favoring increasing rates again. Hourly wages have also…

The latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, has been released. The report indicates that inflation remains elevated across most sectors, although the overall reading came in slightly below expectations. However, this encouraging development has been tempered by a decline in consumer sentiment, which has fallen for the fourth consecutive month. Much of the pessimism has been attributed to concerns surrounding the conflict in Iran and rising fuel costs. Despite inflation coming in below forecasts, some members of the Federal Reserve have continued to discuss the possibility of raising interest rates further in…

The week was relatively light following the release of the prior inflation data and the FOMC rate decision. The Federal Reserve decided to keep its overnight borrowing rate unchanged and has indicated no plans to make changes in the near term. Many members of the Federal Reserve Board continue to watch economic conditions closely, as inflation remains elevated across many sectors and could warrant further policy action if price pressures persist. FOMC Rate DecisionThe Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to keep its benchmark overnight borrowing rate anchored in a range of 3.5%-3.75%. The federal funds rate has held there…

With the inflation reports showing their cards, the Consumer Price Index has shown to be in line with expectations, but unexpectedly the Producer Price Index has come in substantially higher than expected. This may indicate that future core cost increases are headed for consumers, as rising costs are passed through producers and businesses down to the customer level. This is somewhat offset by Consumer Sentiment having risen, breaking a three-month downward trend. Largely due to the deal with Iran that took place this weekend, there appears to be considerable optimism that fuel prices will return to previous norms. This makes…

Unemployment data has been released, revealing an interesting trend: different demographic groups are facing varying, and in some cases significantly higher, levels of unemployment. While the overall unemployment rate has remained steady at 4.3%, some demographics are experiencing substantially higher unemployment within their respective fields. This comes alongside hourly wage reports which have met the expected growth level for this month. Historically, however, wage growth has been offset by inflation rising at a much faster pace. As a result, many Americans have found the cost of living increasingly difficult to manage as they attempt to economize and cope with rising…