Jobless Claims

With the prior week’s release of the inflation data and next week’s release of the PCE Index data — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure — it has been an exceptionally light week for economic releases. The only notable reports were Leading Economic Indicators and Consumer Sentiment, both of which showed declines. Consumer sentiment, in particular, has seen a significant drop since the change in administration, reaching lows not seen in decades. U.S. Leading Economic IndicatorsThe Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the US rose slightly by 0.1% in April 2026 to 97.4 (2016=100), following a 0.6% decline in…

The CPI and PPI came in on schedule, and the results were warmer than expected, with the Producer Price Index showing an increase of 0.6% — nearly double the expected 0.3% rise. This is also reflected in the elevated, though expected, CPI reading of 0.6%. This is certainly being driven by increased fuel and energy costs. This is further supported by U.S. Retail Sales showing an increase, though high gas prices and inflation are playing a major role in the rise in sales figures. As a result, the rate cuts the Federal Reserve had discussed in the past are now…

The inflation data scheduled for this week has been pushed back by one week. The unemployment data was the only impactful economic report released this week. Across the board, unemployment statistics came in within expectations, while wage increases were slightly below expectations. Historically, wages have lagged behind inflation, making both unemployment and wage growth strong barometers of the economy’s overall health. Despite the current state of affairs, the economy appears to be holding strong, as reflected across the broader markets. Job Wages The average hourly earnings for all employees in the U.S. total private sector reached ($37.41). This represents a…

The latest Trade Balance data has shown that despite the rigorous action involved with tariffs, it has had little impact on adjusting the trade balance amongst the US and other countries. The imbalance has gone the other direction — becoming worse — the last 3 releases alone.  The unemployment data has shown to be surprisingly resilient as people are not gaining nor losing jobs on the average. Amidst the current economic events and administrative events, there has been some job scarcity in many markets but the impact has not been shown in the data.  Hourly wages has also again consistently…

A relatively light week given recent events, with the only notable releases being Consumer Sentiment and Retail Sales. Consumer Sentiment has broken its recent downtrend, ticking up slightly. However, in the face of rising gas prices and increasing costs of living, this may shift in the next release. Retail Sales have also shown a positive uptick, indicating that the economy remains resilient despite ongoing global events. Consumer SentimentUS consumer sentiment showed some improvement amid a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, but it's still at record lows, according to new data from the University of Michigan. The Index of…

With the full release of all the data for PPI and CPI—albeit delayed—we now have a clearer picture that the recent wars have pushed inflation to a three-year high. The Federal Reserve has made no clear indication of its plans, but for the foreseeable future, much of the speculation points toward keeping rates at their current levels, with no plans to raise or cut them. Consumer Sentiment reports, as well as the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, have also provided insight that conditions are slowing down, as businesses appear to be tempering activity amid the war in Iran. This should signal…

The core CPI and PCE data have been released, leaving only the non-core CPI data delayed. Amid the Iran war, inflation has once again risen to higher levels, with most sectors seeing widespread price increases due to higher fuel and energy costs. As fuel costs rise, there is a knock-on effect across other consumer products as well. However, inflation has remained within expectations when considering the impact of the war. PCE IndexShortly before the start of the Iran war, a key measure of U.S. inflation rose at an excessive pace for the third month in a row, underscoring the latest…