Jobless Claims

The government has been facing a shutdown for the past 19 days with continued obstinacy from both parties, largely over healthcare subsidies. As a result, there will be few major reports this week, the most notable being the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, which indicates that the U.S. economy is once again showing signs of slowing. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell also provided comments on the current inflation outlook, noting that multiple private and public data sources show inflation remains largely within projections. He added that the Fed will maintain its current monetary policy stance despite the ongoing government shutdow. There…

Due to the government shutdown, nearly all reports will be delayed aside from a few third party reports. The Consumer Sentiment report has been released on time and shows that consumers are still frustrated with the economy and increasingly high inflation. It is unknown when the government shutdown will end and when we will be seeing reports released again in a timely fashion. Interest rates will still be continued to be adjusted amidst the government shutdown. Consumer SentimentAmericans have soured on the prospect of finding new jobs, a new survey shows. They are also still frustrated by persistent inflation, giving…

The release of key Unemployment Data was delayed last week due to administrative changes in how jobless figures are tracked. The Consumer Confidence report reflects these policy adjustments, showing growing concerns about the job market and a larger-than-expected decline in confidence for September. Lastly, with tariff disruptions continuing to affect the manufacturing sector, the Global US Manufacturing data has revealed that production has slowed overall since the initial disruptions. Manufacturing PMIThe latest survey showed a weaker gain in production, whilst new order book growth softened as tariffs continued to weigh on exports. Tariffs and broader policy uncertainty also dampened firms’…

The PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, has been on the rise but remains within expectations. Although there was heavy speculation that this year’s inflation would spike due to impactful tariff policies, it has largely stayed within forecasts—enough for the Federal Reserve to introduce a 25 basis point rate cut. The PCE Index data has shown this trend to continue. This is followed up closely by the Consumer Sentiment report which has been unstable due to significant inflation concerns, but has finally tempered itself after three straight months of consumer sentiment falling to yearly lows. Finally,…

It has been a relatively light week following the recent rate changes, as the Federal Reserve has felt the need to drop the current rate by 25 basis points. They have also mentioned the possibility of two additional rate cuts within this year. This follows the recent sharp criticism from the current administration, which condemned the Federal Reserve’s insistence on maintaining existing interest rates. This development coincides with the Leading Economic Indicators, which have shown that the U.S. economy remains in decline, a trend that began in August. With further rate cuts on the horizon, the broader market reaction has…

Both the CPI and PPI came in precisely within expectations. Under the current circumstances, there is now a very high probability that the Federal Reserve will implement a quarter-point rate cut, a view widely shared by industry analysts. There is also a strong possibility of another cut to follow. Meanwhile, Consumer Sentiment has hit another low in the last 4 months, as many have growing concerns about the state of the job market in addition to inflation continuing to grow. It is unknown how much the rate cuts will impact inflation, but so far the Federal Reserve has managed to…

The release of major inflation data has once again arrived with the Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price Index, offering insight into the current state of the economy. Based on recent statements from the Federal Reserve, there is considerable speculation that rate cuts may occur regardless of the trajectory of inflation. More recent data releases have shown that the economy is still on shaky ground after changes to tariff policies, leading things to be more unstable than anticipated. Trade deficits have also shown to have bounced back significantly from the prior months, while the manufacturing side are still showing…