Jobless Claims

While unemployment rates have fallen to their lowest levels since 2025, they have not fallen for the right reasons. Many people who have dropped out of the labor force have also stopped looking for work, which can skew the unemployment numbers. This has been followed by a smaller-than-expected increase in hourly pay, which has continued to lag behind inflation, especially in the current environment. This weakness has also been reflected in a reduction in overall payrolls, indicating an overall decline in employment. As a result, these labor market conditions could make the Federal Reserve more hesitant to raise rates. U.S.…

With the Federal Reserve meeting now concluded, and the board has decided to maintain current interest rates. However, attention remains focused on the potential for rate hikes at the next meeting. While inflation has continued to decline on a month-to-month basis, the overall year-over-year inflation rate remains well above the Federal Reserve's target. The PCE Index came in within expectations and has remained largely flat for the first time since the pandemic. Even so, inflation remains a significant challenge overall, as consumers continue to feel the effects of higher fuel and energy prices, along with rising household costs. Personal income…

The PCE Index inflation data is expected to come in lower this week than the previous month's reading. With the Federal Reserve's rate decision set to arrive soon, the prior week was relatively light in terms of economic data. Despite inflation continuing to trend lower, this is unlikely to have an impact on the rate decision later this week. However, it will likely spark further discussion about the current state of the economy. Although inflation remains persistent, there have also been several encouraging developments. Economic IndicatorsThe US Leading Economic Index decreased by 0.2% in June 2026, driven by weak consumer…

Inflation has shown signs of easing for the first time since the early days of the COVID pandemic. However, inflation remains higher than anticipated. Both the PPI and CPI data releases came in lower than expected, suggesting that inflationary pressures may be beginning to moderate. This is based on the newer, more theoretical reporting for the PPI and CPI. It is unlikely this will cause any significant change in stance by the Federal Reserve, as it still prefers the PCE Index as its preferred inflation indicator. In addition, prices remain elevated for the average consumer, creating pressure across many sectors.…

The Trade Balance has offered little new insight, as it has largely returned to levels seen prior to the earlier period of unstable tariff policies. Consumer Credit had been trending upward nearly every month; however, this latest report breaks that pattern by showing a decline in consumer credit usage. Meanwhile, the Fed’s Minutes revealed nothing particularly substantial, instead reflecting a dovish stance and a willingness to maintain current interest rates for the foreseeable future. Consumer CreditTotal US consumer credit fell by $0.18 billion in May 2026, following an upwardly revised $20.82 billion increase in April and missing market expectations for…

Unemployment data has shown some rather interesting statistics, with the lowest unemployment rates in the last 14 months being reported. Looking closer at the statistics shows that the unemployment rate hasn’t just dropped due to more people finding work, but also because a significant number of people have stopped looking for work, causing the numbers to appear more favorable. Among analysts, this is a pretty standout example, and currently, the Federal Reserve has made no indication that it plans to change its policies on interest rates, with many members of the board still favoring increasing rates again. Hourly wages have also…

The latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, has been released. The report indicates that inflation remains elevated across most sectors, although the overall reading came in slightly below expectations. However, this encouraging development has been tempered by a decline in consumer sentiment, which has fallen for the fourth consecutive month. Much of the pessimism has been attributed to concerns surrounding the conflict in Iran and rising fuel costs. Despite inflation coming in below forecasts, some members of the Federal Reserve have continued to discuss the possibility of raising interest rates further in…