Jobless Claims

The week was relatively light following the release of the prior inflation data and the FOMC rate decision. The Federal Reserve decided to keep its overnight borrowing rate unchanged and has indicated no plans to make changes in the near term. Many members of the Federal Reserve Board continue to watch economic conditions closely, as inflation remains elevated across many sectors and could warrant further policy action if price pressures persist. FOMC Rate DecisionThe Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to keep its benchmark overnight borrowing rate anchored in a range of 3.5%-3.75%. The federal funds rate has held there…

With the inflation reports showing their cards, the Consumer Price Index has shown to be in line with expectations, but unexpectedly the Producer Price Index has come in substantially higher than expected. This may indicate that future core cost increases are headed for consumers, as rising costs are passed through producers and businesses down to the customer level. This is somewhat offset by Consumer Sentiment having risen, breaking a three-month downward trend. Largely due to the deal with Iran that took place this weekend, there appears to be considerable optimism that fuel prices will return to previous norms. This makes…

Unemployment data has been released, revealing an interesting trend: different demographic groups are facing varying, and in some cases significantly higher, levels of unemployment. While the overall unemployment rate has remained steady at 4.3%, some demographics are experiencing substantially higher unemployment within their respective fields. This comes alongside hourly wage reports which have met the expected growth level for this month. Historically, however, wage growth has been offset by inflation rising at a much faster pace. As a result, many Americans have found the cost of living increasingly difficult to manage as they attempt to economize and cope with rising…

The PCE Index inflation data has been released on schedule, and it paints a rather grim outlook for the future. Inflation has reached a three-year high, and given that it is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, it does not bode well for any impending rate cuts and may even raise the possibility of future rate increases. This is somewhat offset by consumer spending having exceeded expectations, but this appears to be entirely related to high fuel prices, whether consumers want to spend that much or not. PCE IndexThe main inflation barometer preferred by the Federal Reserve rose to…

With the prior week’s release of the inflation data and next week’s release of the PCE Index data — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure — it has been an exceptionally light week for economic releases. The only notable reports were Leading Economic Indicators and Consumer Sentiment, both of which showed declines. Consumer sentiment, in particular, has seen a significant drop since the change in administration, reaching lows not seen in decades. U.S. Leading Economic IndicatorsThe Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the US rose slightly by 0.1% in April 2026 to 97.4 (2016=100), following a 0.6% decline in…

The CPI and PPI came in on schedule, and the results were warmer than expected, with the Producer Price Index showing an increase of 0.6% — nearly double the expected 0.3% rise. This is also reflected in the elevated, though expected, CPI reading of 0.6%. This is certainly being driven by increased fuel and energy costs. This is further supported by U.S. Retail Sales showing an increase, though high gas prices and inflation are playing a major role in the rise in sales figures. As a result, the rate cuts the Federal Reserve had discussed in the past are now…

The inflation data scheduled for this week has been pushed back by one week. The unemployment data was the only impactful economic report released this week. Across the board, unemployment statistics came in within expectations, while wage increases were slightly below expectations. Historically, wages have lagged behind inflation, making both unemployment and wage growth strong barometers of the economy’s overall health. Despite the current state of affairs, the economy appears to be holding strong, as reflected across the broader markets. Job Wages The average hourly earnings for all employees in the U.S. total private sector reached ($37.41). This represents a…