Financial Report

The PCE Index reports have come in—albeit delayed—and show inflation numbers that fell within expectations. The data also indicates that inflation has not worsened since before the government shutdown. It is widely believed that the Federal Reserve will likely cut rates once more. This is followed by another Consumer Spending report showing that spending rose in September and October, though the momentum appears to be slowing. Much of the optimism in the broader markets going forward hinges on the potential for further interest rate cuts. Consumer SpendingPersonal spending rose 0.3% in September, the government said Friday. That was a touch…

Many of the reports scheduled for release last week were delayed yet again, including the anticipated unemployment data. There is an expectation that they will be released next week. The only on-time release was the third-party Consumer Sentiment report from the University of Michigan, which aligned with expectations and generally indicated that consumers remain dissatisfied with the current state of things, citing high prices and consistently weakening incomes. Univ. of Michigan Consumer ReportConsumer sentiment was little changed this month with a 2.6 index point decrease from October that is within the margin of error. After the federal shutdown ended, sentiment…

This week finally got a strong release of regularly scheduled data, with unemployment figures coming out first, along with employment-rate data. The prior week included the Consumer Price Index, which came in favorable. Some of the unemployment-related numbers, however, weren’t as telling as they could be: the forecast was roughly 50,000, but the actual figure landed closer to 110,000. That’s an order-of-magnitude miss, suggesting we may need to allow some time for the data to self-correct. The coming week is slated to include both the PPI—which has drifted out of sync with the CPI—and the PCE Index. These are the…

In the aftermath of the recent government shutdown, the expected releases are still delayed. This round of releases is particularly impactful, involving key inflation reports from both the Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price Index. While the Federal Reserve prefers the PCE Index—and also relies on its own methods for collecting inflation data—the delay is undoubtedly troubling for the broader market, as the shutdown disrupted a wide range of services across the nation. The data is now expected to be released next week. Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.01% for this week,…

With the government shutdown heading into a possible resolution, there were still delays on important data such as employment report releases. This has been somewhat relieved with the release of other reports that have been delayed in the past within the current government shutdown. This time we are looking at Consumer Sentiment reports by Univ. of Michigan, which has reported a record low in sentiment in the last 6 months amidst the government shutdown. This signifies growing consumer anxiety as inflation pressures grow and delays in programs like Food Benefits take effect. Next week, the CPI and PPI inflation reports…

With the ongoing government shutdown, other major releases have hit a snag, as there is still very limited information for when the shutdown may end. The largest and most impactful releases continuing to move forward are those from third-party sources still publishing data — such as the Consumer Sentiment reports — which show that consumers remain concerned about inflation but have recently grown more optimistic about the labor market. As expected, the Federal Reserve cut rates again by another 25 basis points. However, Chairman Jerome Powell remains skeptical that another rate cut will occur anytime soon. Consumer SentimentConsumers were more…

While the government shutdown remains ongoing, inflation data for both the CPI and PPI has been released, indicating that inflation came in below expectations. It’s worth noting that under the new policy, more data will be simulated rather than collected from broader sources, there is still a significant degree of data collection. This was followed by the Consumer Sentiment report, which suggests that the economy may be gaining momentum again, as sentiment has risen and broken its recent downtrend. Although many reports are still delayed due to the government shutdown, some essential releases have started to be prioritized. With the…